A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
