A mere two months in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
